Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- JR RitchiePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Mets- Bo BichetteBatting2-3, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8White reached on infield single to shortstop, Albies scored, Riley to third.5–7
- 8Albies singled to center, Harris II scored.4–7
- 5Olson homered to center (399 feet).3–7
- 4Bichette hit sacrifice fly to center, Melendez scored, Benge to second.2–7
- 2Bichette homered to right (341 feet), Melendez scored, Torrens scored and Benge scored.2–6
- 2Yastrzemski singled to right, Smith scored, Riley to third.2–2
- 2Smith singled to left, Albies scored.1–2
- 1Soto homered to right (382 feet).0–2
- 1Bichette homered to left center (383 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 54%
- ML ATL +107 / NYM -129
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 47.0%, market 53.8%
- Fair odds
- NYM -117
- ATL +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.8 – 4.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +3 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +21 Elo | ATL 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.7 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 1st of 3023–12 | Road vs home | 16–1722nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 148830th of 30 |
| 4th of 301545 | Elo rating | 149217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–25 | 30–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–21 | 17–27 |
| Underdog | 14–4 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 33–31–4 | 29–32–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 25–14 NYM in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 39.