Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Eli WhiteBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Mets- Bo BichetteBatting2-4
- Sean ManaeaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Harris II homered to right (392 feet).3–1
- 6Vientos singled to left, Bichette scored.2–1
- 4White homered to left (390 feet).2–0
- 2White doubled to right, Olson scored, White to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 52%
- ML ATL -101 / NYM -120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 42.2%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -109
- ATL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.2 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −20 | ATL: Martin Perez: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.98 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +54 Elo | ATL 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 1st of 3023–13 | Road vs home | 17–1719th of 30 |
| 24th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 148930th of 30 |
| 4th of 301543 | Elo rating | 149416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–26 | 31–38 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–21 | 18–27 |
| Underdog | 14–5 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 34–31–4 | 30–32–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 25–15 NYM in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 40.