New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Mark VientosBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Reds- Sal StewartBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Vientos homered to left (421 feet), Semien scored.3–5
- 5Stewart singled to left, Arroyo scored, Dunn to second.1–5
- 3Bichette singled to center, Melendez scored, Alvarez to second.1–4
- 1Steer homered to left center (392 feet).0–4
- 1Stewart homered to left (410 feet), Dunn and Bleday scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 52%
- ML NYM -117 / CIN -103
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- NYM: Elo 50.4%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- NYM -106
- CIN +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.1 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −16 | NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +3 Elo | NYM 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 24th of 3014–22 | Road vs home | 18–1820th of 30 |
| 29th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149328th of 30 |
| 16th of 301492 | Elo rating | 148222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–40 | 37–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–28 | 12–17 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 25–17 |
| Overs–unders | 32–33–7 | 43–27–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 9–13 CIN in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 22.