New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Juan SotoBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Reds- JJ BledayBatting0-2, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Soto doubled to center, Bichette scored.9–1
- 8Bichette singled to right, Benge scored.8–1
- 5Ewing doubled to center, Alvarez scored and Semien scored.7–1
- 5Alvarez singled to left, Soto scored, Semien to second.5–1
- 5Vientos hit sacrifice fly to right, Bichette scored.4–1
- 3Bleday hit sacrifice fly to center, Trevino scored.3–1
- 3Vientos singled to left, Soto scored, Semien to second.3–0
- 3Semien singled to left, Bichette scored, Soto to third.2–0
- 3Soto singled to center, Torrens scored, Bichette to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 55%
- ML NYM -137 / CIN +114
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- NYM: Elo 48.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -124
- CIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.7 – 4.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | 0 | NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +8 Elo | CIN 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 24th of 3014–23 | Road vs home | 19–1818th of 30 |
| 29th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149228th of 30 |
| 16th of 301490 | Elo rating | 148422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–41 | 38–34 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–28 | 13–17 |
| Underdog | 13–13 | 25–17 |
| Overs–unders | 32–34–7 | 43–28–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 9–14 CIN in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.