Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Blake DunnBatting2-3
- Rhett LowderPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 13 K
Scoring summary
- 8Volpe singled to left, Chisholm Jr. scored, Jones to second.0–5
- 2Rice homered to center (433 feet), Jones scored and Volpe scored.0–4
- 2Chisholm Jr. homered to right (390 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 71%
- ML CIN +233 / NYY -292
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 67.0%, market 71.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -248
- CIN +248 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.5 – 5.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +14 | CIN: Rhett Lowder: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +123 Elo | NYY 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 67.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 67.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 71.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 15th of 3016–19 | Road vs home | 21–136th of 30 |
| 27th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301480 | Elo rating | 15633rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–35 | 40–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–17 | 32–30 |
| Underdog | 25–18 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 44–28–1 | 33–35–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 5–4 NYY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 9.