Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting1-1, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Yankees- Ryan McMahonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Benintendi homered to right center (393 feet), Antonacci scored, Gonzalez scored and Peters scored.5–1
- 3McMahon homered to left center (430 feet).1–1
- 2C. Montgomery homered to center (420 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 61%
- ML CHW +146 / NYY -177
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 65.2%, market 61.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -157
- CHW +157 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.3 – 5.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −9 | CHW: Bryan Hudson: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYY: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +109 Elo | NYY 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 62.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 61.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 11th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.72nd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 24th of 3014–22 | Road vs home | 21–124th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301475 | Elo rating | 15672nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–35 | 40–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 32–29 |
| Underdog | 32–24 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 43–27–2 | 33–34–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 6–15 NYY in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 21.