Cleveland Guardians at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Travis BazzanaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Brewers- Gary SanchezBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Shane DrohanPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Schneemann scored, Manzardo to second, Rocchio to third on wild pitch by Rom.4–2
- 7Schneemann scored on Rom wild pitch, Manzardo to second on wild pitch by Rom, Rocchio to third on wild pitch by Rom.4–2
- 7Bazzana homered to right (398 feet).3–2
- 6Manzardo homered to right (370 feet).2–2
- 4Pratt hit sacrifice fly to center, Sánchez scored.1–2
- 3Fry homered to left center (380 feet).1–1
- 2Sánchez singled to center, Vaughn scored, Bauers to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML CLE +124 / MIL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 59.7%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -134
- CLE +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.4 – 4.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −9 | CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Shane Drohan: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +68 Elo | MIL 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.42nd of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.73rd of 30 |
| 29th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 10th of 3020–18 | Road vs home | 25–144th of 30 |
| 5th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 10th of 301510 | Elo rating | 15672nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–37 | 41–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 25–23 |
| Underdog | 24–13 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 36–38 | 33–36–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–8 MIL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.