Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Robert GasserPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Braves- Rowdy TellezBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.0 IP, 8 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tellez homered to center (422 feet), Albies scored.9–4
- 7Mitchell scored on López wild pitch.9–2
- 7Mitchell scored on López wild pitch.9–2
- 4Bart grounded out to third, Harris II scored.8–2
- 2Contreras homered to left (408 feet), Chourio scored and Turang scored.8–1
- 2Turang singled to right, Yelich scored, Chourio to second.5–1
- 2Chourio singled to center, Hamilton scored, Yelich to second.4–1
- 2Hamilton doubled to center, Frelick scored.3–1
- 2Frelick doubled to left, Bauers scored and Contreras scored.2–1
- 1Albies hit sacrifice fly to right, Dubón scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 52%
- ML MIL -102 / ATL -119
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 48.7%, market 51.8%
- Fair odds
- ATL -108
- MIL +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.4 – 4.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −8 | MIL: Robert Gasser: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +9 Elo | MIL 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 51.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.5 | Margin | +1.44th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 5th of 3020–14 | Road vs home | 24–134th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301563 | Elo rating | 15384th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–32 | 45–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 25–25 | 29–24 |
| Underdog | 17–7 | 16–6 |
| Overs–unders | 33–38–3 | 36–33–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 9–11 ATL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.