San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jung Hoo LeeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching2.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Chapman grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Arraez scored, Eldridge out at second.7–2
- 8Adames homered to center (424 feet).6–2
- 5Lee homered to right (373 feet).5–2
- 5Devers homered to right center (400 feet).4–2
- 2Chapman hit sacrifice fly to center, Gilbert scored.3–2
- 2Eldridge walked, Schmitt scored, Arraez to second, Gilbert to third.2–2
- 1Dubón singled to right, Harris II scored, Smith to third.1–2
- 1Baldwin homered to center (473 feet).1–1
- 1Lee hit sacrifice fly to center, Arraez scored, Eldridge to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 61%
- ML SF +144 / ATL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 62.1%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- ATL -155
- SF +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.0 – 5.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −2 | SF: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +85 Elo | ATL 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.52nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.54th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3015–23 | Road vs home | 22–112nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149524th of 30 |
| 25th of 301479 | Elo rating | 15414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–40 | 44–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–16 | 29–21 |
| Underdog | 23–24 | 15–6 |
| Overs–unders | 34–33–5 | 35–32–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 10–9 ATL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 19.