San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Luis ArraezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Carson WhisenhuntPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Braves- Mauricio DubonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- JR RitchiePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baldwin scored on Beck wild pitch, Olson to second on wild pitch by Beck.7–5
- 9Baldwin scored on Beck wild pitch, Olson to second on wild pitch by Beck.7–5
- 9Dubón homered to left center (395 feet), Camargo scored.7–4
- 9Arraez singled to left, Cox scored and Gilbert scored.7–2
- 6Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Albies scored.5–2
- 6Riley singled to left, Olson scored, Albies to second.5–1
- 2Eldridge homered to center (406 feet).5–0
- 2Arraez homered to right (380 feet), Haase scored.4–0
- 2Adames homered to left (400 feet).2–0
- 1Devers doubled to left, Arraez scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 56%
- ML SF +117 / ATL -141
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.6%, market 55.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -127
- SF +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.2 – 4.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −15 | SF: Carson Whisenhunt: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · ATL: JR Ritchie: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +53 Elo | ATL 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 55.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.63rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.44th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3016–23 | Road vs home | 22–124th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149524th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301483 | Elo rating | 15384th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–40 | 44–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–16 | 29–22 |
| Underdog | 24–24 | 15–6 |
| Overs–unders | 34–33–6 | 35–32–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 11–9 ATL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 20.