Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris SalePitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Albies homered to right (339 feet), Olson scored.3–4
- 7Riley grounded out to third, Albies scored.3–2
- 7Chourio grounded out to third, Pratt scored, Ortiz to second.3–1
- 6Vaughn singled to center, Turang scored, Contreras to third.2–1
- 6Sánchez hit sacrifice fly to right, Chourio scored, Turang to third.1–1
- 5Albies homered to right center (367 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 55%
- ML MIL +113 / ATL -136
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 49.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -123
- MIL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.3 – 3.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +15 | MIL: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +3 Elo | MIL 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.6 | Margin | +1.44th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3020–13 | Road vs home | 23–134th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149623rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301564 | Elo rating | 15374th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–32 | 45–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 25–25 | 29–23 |
| Underdog | 16–7 | 16–6 |
| Overs–unders | 33–38–2 | 36–33–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 9–10 ATL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.