Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Braves- Mike YastrzemskiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Turang singled to left, Yelich scored, Chourio thrown out at home. Milwaukee Brewers challenged call on the field was upheld2–3
- 7Yastrzemski homered to right (374 feet).1–3
- 6Dubón singled to left, Albies scored and Mateo scored, Olson to second.1–2
- 3Turang reached on infield single to shortstop, Perkins scored, Chourio to second, Ortiz to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 62%
- ML MIL -181 / ATL +149
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 53.3%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -160
- ATL +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.3 – 3.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +8 | MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.97 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Martin Perez: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +23 Elo | MIL 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.63rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.6 | Margin | +1.44th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3020–12 | Road vs home | 22–134th of 30 |
| 21st of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149523rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301565 | Elo rating | 15364th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–31 | 44–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 25–24 | 29–23 |
| Underdog | 16–7 | 15–6 |
| Overs–unders | 33–37–2 | 36–32–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 9–9 ATL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.