Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Noelvi MarteBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Konnor GriffinBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Marte homered to left center (405 feet), Stewart scored.6–4
- 6Valdez homered to left (414 feet).4–4
- 6Ozuna homered to center (408 feet).4–3
- 5Lowe hit sacrifice fly to center, Davis scored.4–2
- 2De La Cruz hit sacrifice fly to center, Stephenson scored, McLain to third.4–1
- 2Dunn hit sacrifice fly to right, Steer scored, McLain to second, Stephenson to third.3–1
- 2Stephenson singled to right, Suárez scored, Steer to third.2–1
- 2Steer singled to center, Lowe scored, Suárez to second.1–1
- 1Griffin homered to left center (435 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 62%
- ML CIN +149 / PIT -181
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- PIT: Elo 53.2%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- PIT -160
- CIN +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.2 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −2 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +22 Elo | PIT 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 60.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.36th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 15th of 3018–20 | Road vs home | 22–2017th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301482 | Elo rating | 149516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–37 | 39–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–18 | 17–26 |
| Underdog | 29–19 | 22–16 |
| Overs–unders | 46–32–1 | 45–33–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 18–27 PIT in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 45.