Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Brandon SproatPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Reds- Nathaniel LoweBatting1-3
- Nick LodoloPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vaughn hit sacrifice fly to center, Turang scored, Contreras to second.2–0
- 6Bauers tripled to right, Vaughn scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 50%
- ML MIL -108 / CIN -112
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- CIN: Elo 41.8%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- CIN -102
- MIL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.7 – 4.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −6 | MIL: Brandon Sproat: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +58 Elo | MIL 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 2nd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3022–14 | Road vs home | 19–2023rd of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301566 | Elo rating | 148523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–33 | 41–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–26 | 13–17 |
| Underdog | 18–7 | 28–19 |
| Overs–unders | 34–39–3 | 45–31–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 28–12 CIN in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 40.