Seattle Mariners at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 11 K
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bubba ChandlerPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8O'Hearn singled to right, Reynolds scored, Gonzales to third.1–5
- 8Lowe singled to center, Davis scored.1–4
- 5Crawford singled to right, Garver scored, Emerson to third.1–3
- 3Davis homered to right center (390 feet), Triolo scored.0–3
- 1Lowe homered to right center (391 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 56%
- ML SEA -144 / PIT +119
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 51.7%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -129
- PIT +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.5 – 4.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −3 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +12 Elo | SEA 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.36th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 14th of 3019–21 | Road vs home | 21–2019th of 30 |
| 29th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301514 | Elo rating | 149216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–47 | 38–42 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–39 | 17–26 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders | 38–39–4 | 45–32–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 7–4 PIT in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.