Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane DrohanPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Rhett LowderPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Steer homered to center (400 feet), De La Cruz scored.6–5
- 8Stewart grounded out to shortstop, Arroyo scored, De La Cruz to third.6–3
- 7Suárez doubled to left, Stewart scored.6–2
- 7Vaughn doubled to left, Bauers scored, Turang scored and Contreras scored.6–1
- 6Dunn doubled to right, Marte scored, Stephenson to third.3–1
- 3Bauers homered to right center (428 feet).3–0
- 3Contreras homered to center (399 feet), Chourio scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 54%
- ML MIL -131 / CIN +109
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 59.3%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -119
- CIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.9 – 4.6 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −7 | MIL: Shane Drohan: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CIN: Rhett Lowder: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +66 Elo | MIL 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 60.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3023–14 | Road vs home | 19–2122nd of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301568 | Elo rating | 148323rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–33 | 41–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–26 | 13–18 |
| Underdog | 19–7 | 28–19 |
| Overs–unders | 34–40–3 | 45–32–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 29–12 CIN in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 41.