Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Sal StewartBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chase BurnsPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 10 K
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Suárez homered to right (344 feet), Arroyo scored and Bleday scored.9–7
- 8Valdez homered to right center (381 feet).6–7
- 7O'Hearn singled to right, Reynolds scored, Gonzales to third.6–6
- 7Lowe hit sacrifice fly to center, Triolo scored.6–5
- 6Trevino singled to right, Marte scored and Steer scored, Myers to third.6–4
- 5Arroyo scored on error, Stewart safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Lowe.4–4
- 5Arroyo doubled to left, Myers scored.3–4
- 4Triolo singled to left, Rodríguez scored.2–4
- 3Lowe homered to right (396 feet), Triolo scored and Mangum scored.2–3
- 3Stewart reached on infield single to third, Trevino scored.2–0
- 1Stewart homered to right (372 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 50%
- ML CIN -112 / PIT -108
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 51.0%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- CIN -102
- PIT +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.0 – 4.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +25 | −8 | CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 1.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +7 Elo | CIN 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.36th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 13th of 3019–20 | Road vs home | 22–2118th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 21st of 301484 | Elo rating | 149316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–37 | 39–43 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–18 | 17–27 |
| Underdog | 30–19 | 22–16 |
| Overs–unders | 47–32–1 | 46–33–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 19–27 PIT in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 46.