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Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast

Final/10MLB.TV, Marquee Sports Net, Brewers.TV

Away

Cubs

46-38

4–3

at

Home

Brewers

50-31

CHC 40%MIL 60%

You didn't pick this one.

American Family Field · MLB.TV, Marquee Sports Net, Brewers.TV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.

MIL75%50%75%CHCStart123456789Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Cubs
  • Seiya SuzukiBatting1-5, 2 RBI
  • Bryse WilsonPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Brewers
  • Gary SanchezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Brandon WoodruffPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K

Scoring summary

  • 10Mitchell walked, Yelich scored, Turang to second, Chourio to third.4–3
  • 10Yelich singled to right, Ortiz scored, Yelich to second.4–2
  • 10Suzuki singled to left, Bregman scored and Crow-Armstrong scored, Busch to second.4–1
  • 10Busch walked, Dean scored, Bregman to second, Crow-Armstrong to third. Milwaukee Brewers challenged: call on the field was upheld.2–1
  • 7Happ scored on Ashby wild pitch, Hoerner to second on wild pitch by Ashby.1–1
  • 7Happ scored on Ashby wild pitch, Hoerner to second on wild pitch by Ashby.1–1
  • 2Sánchez homered to left (415 feet).0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Brewers 60%

LeanMiss
CHC 40%MIL 60%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.

Market
MIL 60%
ML CHC +139 / MIL -169
Pre-line forecast
MIL 59%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIL 59%
Ratings vs. market
−1.3 pts
MIL: Elo 58.8%, market 60.0%
Fair odds
MIL -150
CHC +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
CHC 3.6 – 4.4 MIL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCHCMILWhy
Team rating15291567Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+2+8CHC: Ryan Rolison: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsMIL +62 EloMIL 58.8%
Market-implied ratingsMIL 58.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIL 58.7%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastMIL 60.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers compared, with each team's league rank
CHCStatMIL
6th of 304.9Runs scored5.23rd of 30
14th of 304.5Runs allowed3.72nd of 30
5th of 30+0.5Margin+1.52nd of 30
2nd of 307–3Last 106–48th of 30
10th of 3022–21Road vs home26–166th of 30
25th of 301497Opponent Elo149916th of 30
6th of 301529Elo rating15672nd of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CubsBrewers
1500155016001650AprAugDecAprAug

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCHCMIL
Run line34–4945–35
Last 107–35–5
Favorite18–3526–28
Underdog16–1419–7
Overs–unders43–35–537–40–3
Overs–unders, last 108–25–4–1

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CHC 21–28 MIL in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 49.