Chicago Cubs at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting2-4, 2 HR, 7 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Mets- Jared YoungBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Swanson homered to left center (418 feet), Happ scored, Hoerner scored and Amaya scored.10–3
- 6Swanson homered to center (400 feet), Hoerner scored and Amaya scored.6–3
- 5Busch homered to right (398 feet), Conforto scored.3–3
- 5Conforto doubled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored.1–3
- 4Alvarez homered to center (437 feet).0–3
- 4Young homered to left center (405 feet), Bichette scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 52%
- ML CHC +100 / NYM -121
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- NYM: Elo 48.7%, market 52.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -110
- CHC +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +10 | CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +9 Elo | CHC 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 52.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 14th of 3018–20 | Road vs home | 18–1922nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 6th of 301521 | Elo rating | 148920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–48 | 34–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–35 | 20–29 |
| Underdog | 12–13 | 14–15 |
| Overs–unders | 39–34–5 | 35–34–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–2–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 12–11 NYM in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 23.