New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Carson BengeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David PetersonPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Ewing grounded into fielder's choice to first, Benge scored, Young out at second, Soto to third.2–6
- 5Harper homered to right (390 feet).1–6
- 3Benge homered to left (359 feet).1–5
- 2Schwarber homered to right center (418 feet), Stott scored and Turner scored.0–5
- 1Sosa reached on infield single to shortstop, Schwarber scored, Bohm to second.0–2
- 1Bohm reached on infield single to third, Turner scored on throwing error by third baseman Baty, Schwarber safe at third on error.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 62%
- ML NYM +149 / PHI -181
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 62.2%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -160
- NYM +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.5 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +17 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +87 Elo | PHI 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 8th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–58th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3016–24 | Road vs home | 22–1913th of 30 |
| 29th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149817th of 30 |
| 17th of 301493 | Elo rating | 15285th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–42 | 33–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–28 | 21–33 |
| Underdog | 14–14 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 34–34–8 | 33–39–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2–2 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 23–22 PHI in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 45.