Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Esteury RuizBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler PhillipsPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ruiz homered to left (358 feet), Jiménez scored.2–8
- 4Schwarber homered to right (352 feet).0–8
- 2Bohm homered to center (447 feet), Schwarber scored.0–7
- 2Marsh homered to center (402 feet), Sosa scored.0–5
- 1Stott tripled to right, Harper and Bohm scored.0–3
- 1Bohm singled to right, Marsh scored, Harper to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 62%
- ML MIA +153 / PHI -186
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.5%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -165
- MIA +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.7 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −2 | MIA: Tyler Phillips: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +46 Elo | PHI 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 25th of 3013–21 | Road vs home | 20–1712th of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149914th of 30 |
| 18th of 301488 | Elo rating | 15285th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–39 | 31–41 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 17–17 | 19–31 |
| Underdog | 17–22 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 40–30–3 | 30–39–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 18–28 PHI in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 46.