Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Liam HicksBatting2-4
- Ryan GustoPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Harper hit sacrifice fly to right, Sosa scored.0–7
- 8Bohm hit sacrifice fly to right, Crawford scored, Sosa to third.0–6
- 5Realmuto homered to left (412 feet), Stott scored.0–5
- 3Crawford singled to center, Stott scored, Rincones Jr. to third.0–3
- 3Rincones Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to second, Marsh scored, Realmuto out at second, Stott to third.0–2
- 2Rincones Jr. homered to right (385 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 64%
- ML MIA +162 / PHI -198
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 60.8%, market 63.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -174
- MIA +174 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.4 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +13 | MIA: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +76 Elo | PHI 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 63.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 13th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3013–20 | Road vs home | 19–1716th of 30 |
| 10th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149915th of 30 |
| 17th of 301490 | Elo rating | 15255th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–38 | 30–41 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 17–17 | 18–31 |
| Underdog | 17–21 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 40–29–3 | 30–38–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 18–27 PHI in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 45.