New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Carson BengeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching2.2 IP, 10 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting4-5, 3 HR, 6 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Schwarber homered to right (359 feet), Turner scored.3–15
- 7Benge homered to right center (420 feet), Vientos scored.3–13
- 5Harper tripled to center, Turner scored and Schwarber scored.1–13
- 4Vientos homered to left (383 feet).1–11
- 3Schwarber homered to right center (457 feet), Crawford scored and Turner scored.0–11
- 3Turner singled to left, Realmuto scored, Crawford to second.0–8
- 3Realmuto doubled to left, Stott scored.0–7
- 3Stott doubled to left, Marsh scored.0–6
- 3Marsh reached on infield single to second, Harper scored on throwing error by second baseman Semien, Marsh to second.0–5
- 3Schwarber homered to right center (456 feet).0–4
- 2Crawford doubled to center, Realmuto scored.0–3
- 2Realmuto doubled to left, Bohm scored.0–2
- 1Harper homered to right center (385 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 64%
- ML NYM +162 / PHI -198
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 58.2%, market 63.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -174
- NYM +174 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.1 – 4.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +17 | NYM: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +57 Elo | PHI 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3016–23 | Road vs home | 21–1916th of 30 |
| 29th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149915th of 30 |
| 15th of 301496 | Elo rating | 15245th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–41 | 32–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–28 | 20–33 |
| Underdog | 14–13 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 33–34–8 | 32–39–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3–2 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 23–21 PHI in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 44.