Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting4-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting3-5
- Andrew PainterPitching2.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marsee homered to right (394 feet).12–4
- 8Stowers singled to right, Mack scored, Lopez to second, Hicks to third.11–4
- 6Stowers homered to right center (436 feet).10–4
- 6Lopez hit sacrifice fly to right, Ruiz scored.9–4
- 6Mack homered to right center (401 feet), Marsee scored.8–4
- 2Marsh lined out to third, Stubbs scored on error by first baseman Stowers, Harper safe at second on error, Turner safe at third on error.6–4
- 2Crawford scored on a balk, Turner to second on a balk, Stubbs to third on a balk.6–3
- 2Crawford scored on a balk, Turner to second on a balk, Stubbs to third on a balk.6–3
- 2Edwards reached on infield single to third, Hicks scored, Stowers to third.6–2
- 2Stowers doubled to left, Ruiz scored, Hicks to third.5–2
- 2Hicks reached on infield single to second, Mack scored, Ruiz to third.4–2
- 2Caissie homered to right center (406 feet).3–2
- 1Bohm singled to right, Harper scored, Marsh to second.2–2
- 1Marsh singled to right, Turner scored, Harper to third.2–1
- 1Stowers homered to right (396 feet), Lopez scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 53%
- ML MIA +103 / PHI -124
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.3%, market 52.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -112
- MIA +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.6 – 4.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −18 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Andrew Painter: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +44 Elo | PHI 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 25th of 3013–22 | Road vs home | 21–1712th of 30 |
| 7th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 21st of 301486 | Elo rating | 15305th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–40 | 32–41 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 17–17 | 20–31 |
| Underdog | 17–23 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 41–30–3 | 31–39–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 18–29 PHI in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 47.