New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Juan SotoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Crawford singled to center, Realmuto scored, Rincones Jr. to second.6–4
- 7Semien tripled to left, Vientos scored and Short scored.6–3
- 7Wagaman singled to right, Benge scored, Vientos to second.4–3
- 4Hill singled to center, Stott scored on error, Hill safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Ewing.3–3
- 3Bohm doubled to right, Schwarber scored.3–2
- 3Soto homered to right center (389 feet).3–1
- 1Bohm singled to right, Turner scored, Harper to second.2–1
- 1Ewing doubled to right, Young scored.2–0
- 1Soto homered to right (386 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 53%
- ML NYM +103 / PHI -124
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.4%, market 52.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -112
- NYM +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.9 – 5.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −14 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +52 Elo | PHI 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3015–23 | Road vs home | 21–1812th of 30 |
| 29th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 16th of 301494 | Elo rating | 15265th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–41 | 32–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–28 | 20–32 |
| Underdog | 13–13 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 33–34–7 | 32–39–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 22–21 PHI in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 43.