Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Kazuma OkamotoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hoerner grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Amaya scored, Crow-Armstrong out at second, Swanson to third.8–6
- 8Okamoto homered to left center (377 feet), Pinango scored and Guerrero Jr. scored.8–5
- 8Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Springer scored, Pinango to second.5–5
- 8Kirk singled to left, Straw scored, Springer to second.4–5
- 7Varsho homered to right (368 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored and Okamoto scored.3–5
- 6Crow-Armstrong homered to right (400 feet), Swanson scored.0–5
- 2Shaw homered to left (390 feet), Bregman scored and Happ scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 56%
- ML TOR +118 / CHC -142
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 53.1%, market 56.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -128
- TOR +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.2 – 4.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −8 | TOR: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +22 Elo | CHC 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 56.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.35th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 19th of 3016–21 | Road vs home | 23–169th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149525th of 30 |
| 8th of 301514 | Elo rating | 15216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–37 | 29–47 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–23 | 18–34 |
| Underdog | 22–14 | 11–13 |
| Overs–unders | 37–35–4 | 37–34–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–6 CHC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.