Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching2.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Carson KellyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ramirez singled to left, Dean scored.2–16
- 7Dean tripled to right, Shaw scored, Kelly scored and Swanson scored.2–15
- 7Kelly reached on infield single to pitcher, Happ scored, Shaw to third.2–12
- 6Bregman grounded into fielder's choice to third, Kelly scored, Crow-Armstrong out at second, Swanson to third.2–11
- 6Crow-Armstrong singled to right, Hoerner scored, Swanson to second, Kelly to third.2–10
- 6Swanson walked, Happ scored, Kelly to second, Hoerner to third. Toronto Blue Jays challenged call on the field was upheld2–9
- 6Kelly walked, Suzuki scored, Hoerner to second, Happ to third.2–8
- 6Springer homered to left (374 feet).2–7
- 3Springer singled to left, Giménez scored.1–7
- 1Bregman singled to left, Swanson scored, Crow-Armstrong to second.0–7
- 1Kelly homered to left center (428 feet), Suzuki scored, Happ scored and Shaw scored.0–6
- 1Suzuki doubled to right, Bregman scored and Crow-Armstrong scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 52%
- ML TOR -101 / CHC -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 53.2%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.4 – 3.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +15 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +22 Elo | CHC 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.18th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 19th of 3016–20 | Road vs home | 22–169th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149424th of 30 |
| 7th of 301518 | Elo rating | 15178th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–36 | 28–47 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–23 | 17–34 |
| Underdog | 22–13 | 11–13 |
| Overs–unders | 36–35–4 | 36–34–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–5 CHC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.