Chicago Cubs at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bichette homered to right center (388 feet), Benge scored.9–6
- 9Benge singled to right, Baty scored.9–4
- 8Swanson doubled to left, Kelly scored.9–3
- 8Kelly doubled to left, Hoerner scored.8–3
- 7Alvarez homered to center (403 feet).7–3
- 4Swanson homered to left (380 feet), Kelly scored.7–2
- 2Alvarez singled to center, Baty scored and Semien scored, Melendez to third.5–2
- 2Crow-Armstrong homered to right center (409 feet), Shaw scored and Kelly scored.5–0
- 2Swanson hit sacrifice fly to left, Happ scored.2–0
- 2Kelly walked, Suzuki scored, Shaw to second, Happ to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 52%
- ML CHC -117 / NYM -103
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- CHC: Elo 50.2%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- CHC -106
- NYM +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.3 – 4.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −2 | CHC: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +1 Elo | CHC 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 15th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 18–1819th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149229th of 30 |
| 6th of 301519 | Elo rating | 149119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–48 | 34–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–35 | 20–28 |
| Underdog | 11–13 | 14–15 |
| Overs–unders | 38–34–5 | 34–34–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 11–11 NYM in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 22.