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Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast

FinalApple TV

Away

Cubs

44-38

2–6

at

Home

Brewers

50-29

CHC 31%MIL 69%

You didn't pick this one.

American Family Field · Apple TV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.

MIL75%50%75%CHCStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Cubs
  • Seiya SuzukiBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Colin ReaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Brewers
  • William ContrerasBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Jacob MisiorowskiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Yelich doubled to left, Pratt scored.2–6
  • 8Suzuki hit sacrifice fly to center, Crow-Armstrong scored.2–5
  • 7Contreras homered to left center (449 feet), Chourio scored.1–5
  • 6Hamilton tripled to left, Pratt scored.1–3
  • 6Mitchell homered to right center (407 feet), Bauers scored.1–2
  • 5Suzuki homered to center (409 feet).1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Brewers 69%

SolidHit
CHC 31%MIL 69%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.

Market
MIL 69%
ML CHC +207 / MIL -257
Pre-line forecast
MIL 64%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIL 62%
Ratings vs. market
−6.6 pts
MIL: Elo 62.3%, market 68.8%
Fair odds
MIL -221
CHC +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
CHC 2.6 – 4.4 MIL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCHCMILWhy
Team rating15271569Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−10+18CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsMIL +87 EloMIL 62.3%
Market-implied ratingsMIL 64.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIL 64.1%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastMIL 68.8%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers compared, with each team's league rank
CHCStatMIL
6th of 304.9Runs scored5.23rd of 30
15th of 304.5Runs allowed3.62nd of 30
5th of 30+0.5Margin+1.62nd of 30
1st of 307–3Last 107–31st of 30
10th of 3021–20Road vs home25–155th of 30
27th of 301495Opponent Elo149820th of 30
6th of 301527Elo rating15692nd of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CubsBrewers
1500155016001650AprAugDecAprAug

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCHCMIL
Run line33–4844–34
Last 106–45–5
Favorite18–3525–27
Underdog15–1319–7
Overs–unders41–35–535–40–3
Overs–unders, last 106–43–6–1

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CHC 20–27 MIL in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 47.