Chicago Cubs at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Mets- Eric WagamanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Crow-Armstrong doubled to right, Shaw scored.4–3
- 7Young homered to right center (388 feet).3–3
- 6Wagaman homered to left (383 feet), Ewing scored.3–2
- 6Happ singled to right, Bregman scored.3–0
- 6Bregman doubled to right, Conforto scored on error, Bregman safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Benge.2–0
- 6Conforto singled to right, Swanson scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 52%
- ML CHC -102 / NYM -118
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- NYM: Elo 45.1%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- NYM -107
- CHC +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −6 | CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +34 Elo | CHC 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 11th of 3020–20 | Road vs home | 18–2125th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 6th of 301527 | Elo rating | 148322nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–48 | 34–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–35 | 20–31 |
| Underdog | 14–13 | 14–15 |
| Overs–unders | 41–34–5 | 37–34–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–1–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 14–11 NYM in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 25.