Chicago Cubs at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting3-5, 4 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Mets- A.J. EwingBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Swanson singled to left, Kelly scored and Ramirez scored.10–5
- 9Ramirez singled to right, Hoerner scored, Kelly to third.8–5
- 8Crow-Armstrong reached on infield single to first, Ramirez scored on throwing error by first baseman Vientos, Crow-Armstrong to second.7–5
- 6Bichette homered to left center (411 feet).6–5
- 6Shaw grounded into fielder's choice to second, Swanson scored, Crow-Armstrong out at second.6–4
- 6Swanson tripled to center, Ramirez scored.5–4
- 4Vientos homered to left center (416 feet).4–4
- 4Crow-Armstrong reached on bunt single to shortstop, Ramirez scored, Swanson to second.4–3
- 4Swanson singled to left, Kelly scored, Ramirez to third.3–3
- 4Ramirez singled to right, Hoerner scored, Kelly to second.2–3
- 2Ewing homered to right center (420 feet), Wagaman scored.1–3
- 2Alvarez homered to left center (387 feet).1–1
- 2Kelly doubled to left, Hoerner scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 51%
- ML CHC -114 / NYM -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 54.0%, market 51.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -104
- NYM +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.0 – 4.0 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −11 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +28 Elo | CHC 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 51.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.526th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 12th of 3019–20 | Road vs home | 18–2024th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 6th of 301524 | Elo rating | 148622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–48 | 34–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–35 | 20–30 |
| Underdog | 13–13 | 14–15 |
| Overs–unders | 40–34–5 | 36–34–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–2–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 13–11 NYM in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 24.