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Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast

FinalMLB.TV, Marquee Sports Net, Brewers.TV

Away

Cubs

45-38

8–2

at

Home

Brewers

50-30

CHC 42%MIL 58%

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American Family Field · MLB.TV, Marquee Sports Net, Brewers.TV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.

MIL75%50%75%CHCStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Cubs
  • Seiya SuzukiBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • David PetersonPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Brewers
  • Jackson ChourioBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Kyle HarrisonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Conforto homered to right center (401 feet).8–2
  • 7Bregman hit sacrifice fly to left, Shaw scored.7–2
  • 6Happ homered to right (381 feet), Busch scored and Hoerner scored.6–2
  • 6Hoerner singled to right, Bregman scored, Hoerner to second, Busch to third.3–2
  • 5Frelick singled to left, Perkins scored.2–2
  • 4Suzuki homered to right (361 feet), Shaw scored.2–1
  • 1Chourio homered to center (411 feet).0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Brewers 58%

LeanMiss
CHC 42%MIL 58%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
MIL 58%
ML CHC +129 / MIL -156
Pre-line forecast
MIL 60%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIL 62%
Ratings vs. market
+3.8 pts
MIL: Elo 62.0%, market 58.3%
Fair odds
MIL -140
CHC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
CHC 3.4 – 4.1 MIL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCHCMILWhy
Team rating15261570Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−15+8CHC: David Peterson: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsMIL +85 EloMIL 62.0%
Market-implied ratingsMIL 59.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIL 60.1%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastMIL 58.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers compared, with each team's league rank
CHCStatMIL
6th of 304.9Runs scored5.22nd of 30
14th of 304.5Runs allowed3.62nd of 30
5th of 30+0.4Margin+1.62nd of 30
1st of 307–3Last 107–31st of 30
11th of 3021–21Road vs home26–154th of 30
25th of 301496Opponent Elo149819th of 30
6th of 301526Elo rating15702nd of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CubsBrewers
1500155016001650AprAugDecAprAug

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCHCMIL
Run line33–4945–34
Last 106–45–5
Favorite18–3526–27
Underdog15–1419–7
Overs–unders42–35–536–40–3
Overs–unders, last 107–34–5–1

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CHC 20–28 MIL in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 48.