Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Joey OrtizBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Robert GasserPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ortiz homered to center (412 feet), Frelick scored.3–5
- 7Turang homered to center (418 feet).3–3
- 6Frelick walked, Yelich scored on Petty wild pitch, Bauers to second.3–2
- 6Bauers singled to left, Vaughn scored, Yelich to third.3–1
- 5De La Cruz homered to left center (412 feet), Arroyo scored.3–0
- 1Myers doubled to left, Steer scored, Bleday to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 56%
- ML CIN +117 / MIL -141
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 63.6%, market 55.9%
- Fair odds
- MIL -127
- CIN +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.2 – 4.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −6 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Robert Gasser: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +97 Elo | MIL 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.52nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 15th of 3020–21 | Road vs home | 26–176th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149915th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301483 | Elo rating | 15652nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–38 | 45–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–18 | 26–29 |
| Underdog | 31–20 | 19–7 |
| Overs–unders | 49–32–1 | 37–41–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 12–30 MIL in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 42.