Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Sal StewartBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Rhett LowderPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon SproatPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chourio homered to left center (404 feet).2–7
- 6Stewart doubled to right, De La Cruz scored.2–6
- 5Bauers homered to center (425 feet).1–6
- 4Chourio singled to left, Frelick scored, Yelich to second, Ortiz to third.1–5
- 4Ortiz singled to right, Bauers scored and Mitchell scored, Frelick to third.1–4
- 4Frelick singled to left, Contreras scored, Mitchell to second, Bauers to third.1–2
- 2Mitchell singled to right, Bauers scored.1–1
- 1Stewart homered to right (382 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 60%
- ML CIN +141 / MIL -171
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 64.8%, market 60.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -152
- CIN +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.3 – 5.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −6 | CIN: Rhett Lowder: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIL: Brandon Sproat: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +106 Elo | MIL 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 60.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.52nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 16th of 3020–22 | Road vs home | 27–176th of 30 |
| 15th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 24th of 301482 | Elo rating | 15662nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–39 | 46–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–18 | 27–29 |
| Underdog | 31–21 | 19–7 |
| Overs–unders | 49–33–1 | 37–42–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 12–31 MIL in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 43.