Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Sam AntonacciBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Noah SchultzPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Tyler O'NeillBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Taveras homered to left (412 feet).1–6
- 6Alexander tripled to right, Taveras scored.1–5
- 5Henderson scored on Richards wild pitch, Rutschman to second on wild pitch by Richards.1–4
- 5Henderson scored on Richards wild pitch, Rutschman to second on wild pitch by Richards.1–4
- 5Ward hit sacrifice fly to right, Alexander scored, Henderson to third.1–3
- 5Rutschman singled to left, Holliday scored, Henderson to second, Alexander to third.1–2
- 5O'Neill homered to left (430 feet).1–1
- 1Antonacci homered to right center (388 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 58%
- ML CHW +129 / BAL -156
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- BAL: Elo 54.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -140
- CHW +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.6 – 5.4 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +1 | CHW: Noah Schultz: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +29 Elo | BAL 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3017–25 | Road vs home | 23–2318th of 30 |
| 12th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 20th of 301487 | Elo rating | 148322nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–41 | 41–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–16 | 21–26 |
| Underdog | 37–25 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders | 49–33–2 | 48–35–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 5–19 BAL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 24.