Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Carter JensenBatting1-4
- Steven CruzPitching1.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting3-6, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- David SandlinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Teel singled to right, Gonzalez scored, Vargas to second.1–22
- 7Vargas grounded into fielder's choice to third, Peters scored, Antonacci out at second, Gonzalez to third. Chicago White Sox challenged: call on the field was overturned.1–21
- 7Gonzalez reached on infield single to third, Acuña scored and Meidroth scored, Peters to third.1–20
- 7Meidroth singled to center, Perez scored, Acuña to second.1–18
- 6Peters homered to right center (364 feet), C. Montgomery scored, Meidroth scored and B. Montgomery scored.1–17
- 5Teel homered to right center (399 feet), Vargas scored.1–13
- 4Benintendi homered to right (376 feet).1–11
- 4Massey grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Witt Jr. scored, Thomas out at second, Caglianone to third.1–10
- 3Vargas doubled to center, Antonacci scored.0–10
- 3Gonzalez homered to right (349 feet), B. Montgomery scored and Peters scored.0–9
- 3Peters singled to center, Benintendi scored and Meidroth scored, B. Montgomery to third.0–6
- 3Meidroth reached on infield single to shortstop, Teel scored, Benintendi to third.0–4
- 3Vargas homered to left (372 feet), Gonzalez scored and Antonacci scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 54%
- ML KC +109 / CHW -131
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- CHW: Elo 49.4%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- CHW -119
- KC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.3 – 4.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −7 | KC: Stephen Kolek: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: David Sandlin: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +4 Elo | KC 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3015–26 | Road vs home | 26–132nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301484 | Elo rating | 147625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–40 | 40–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 5–14 |
| Underdog | 29–20 | 35–25 |
| Overs–unders | 40–40–2 | 45–32–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 31–15 CHW in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 33 of 46.