Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Kahlil WatsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching7.2 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Vargas homered to left (376 feet).1–2
- 5Watson homered to right (373 feet).1–1
- 4C. Montgomery singled to right, Grichuk scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 52%
- ML CLE -117 / CHW -103
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 54.5%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- CLE -106
- CHW +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.6 – 3.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −14 | CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +31 Elo | CLE 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–21 | Road vs home | 25–122nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 10th of 301510 | Elo rating | 147626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–38 | 40–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 28–14 | 35–25 |
| Overs–unders | 39–40 | 45–30–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 24–16 CHW in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 40.