Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Travis BazzanaBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kai-Wei TengPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Bazzana grounded out to second, Halpin scored.1–2
- 4Paredes singled to center, Alvarez scored, Walker to third.0–2
- 1Alvarez homered to right center (407 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 54%
- ML CLE +109 / HOU -132
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 46.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -119
- CLE +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.1 – 4.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −15 | CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Kai-Wei Teng: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +22 Elo | CLE 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–58th of 30 |
| 9th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 19–2123rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149526th of 30 |
| 9th of 301513 | Elo rating | 148820th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–38 | 37–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 11–19 |
| Underdog | 26–14 | 26–22 |
| Overs–unders | 38–39 | 42–32–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 9–13 HOU in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.