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Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast

FinalMLB.TV, Tigers.TV, Space City Home Network, Space City Home (Alt.)

Away

Tigers

30-42

9–3

at

Home

Astros

33-41

DET 47%HOU 53%

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Daikin Park · MLB.TV, Tigers.TV, Space City Home Network, Space City Home (Alt.)

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.

HOU75%50%75%DETStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Tigers
  • Colt KeithBatting3-4, 3 HR, 6 RBI
  • Drew AndersonPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Astros
  • Isaac ParedesBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Kai-Wei TengPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 9 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Keith homered to left (347 feet).9–3
  • 7Keith homered to right (344 feet), Dingler scored.8–3
  • 5Dingler scored on a passed ball by Vázquez, Torkelson to second on passed ball by Vázquez.6–3
  • 5Dingler scored on a passed ball by Vázquez, Torkelson to second on passed ball by Vázquez.6–3
  • 3Altuve homered to left center (410 feet).5–3
  • 3Paredes homered to left (358 feet), Walker scored.5–2
  • 3Torkelson homered to left (372 feet).5–0
  • 3Keith homered to right center (411 feet), Dingler scored.4–0
  • 2McGonigle homered to right (383 feet).2–0
  • 1Keith hit by pitch, McGonigle scored, Dingler to second, Greene to third.1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Astros 53%

Toss-upMiss
DET 47%HOU 53%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
HOU 53%
ML DET +104 / HOU -125
Pre-line forecast
HOU 51%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
HOU 51%
Ratings vs. market
−1.9 pts
HOU: Elo 51.2%, market 53.1%
Fair odds
HOU -113
DET +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DET 4.4 – 4.6 HOU
Margin from the forecast, posted total 9

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDETHOUWhy
Team rating14871488Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+2−8DET: Drew Anderson: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · HOU: Kai-Wei Teng: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsHOU +8 EloHOU 51.2%
Market-implied ratingsHOU 51.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastHOU 51.2%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastHOU 53.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros compared, with each team's league rank
DETStatHOU
23rd of 304.1Runs scored4.612th of 30
10th of 304.2Runs allowed5.125th of 30
16th of 30−0.2Margin−0.524th of 30
5th of 306–4Last 105–510th of 30
30th of 3011–26Road vs home16–1924th of 30
17th of 301499Opponent Elo149525th of 30
21st of 301487Elo rating148818th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

TigersAstros
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDETHOU
Run line33–3834–39
Last 106–45–5
Favorite14–258–17
Underdog19–1326–22
Overs–unders32–35–439–30–4
Overs–unders, last 106–3–14–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DET 11–9 HOU in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.