Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mike BurrowsPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Royals- Carter JensenBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Walker grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Loperfido scored, Alvarez out at second.8–7
- 8Altuve homered to left (407 feet), Paredes scored.7–7
- 6Jensen doubled to center, Perez scored, Thomas scored and Massey scored.5–7
- 6Meyers homered to left center (419 feet).5–4
- 5Matthews homered to center (434 feet), Meyers scored.4–4
- 4Thomas homered to left center (432 feet).2–4
- 4Walker homered to left (394 feet), Alvarez scored.2–3
- 3Witt Jr. scored on a passed ball by Vázquez, Pasquantino to second on passed ball by Vázquez.0–3
- 3Witt Jr. scored on a passed ball by Vázquez, Pasquantino to second on passed ball by Vázquez.0–3
- 3Pasquantino singled to center, Jensen scored, Witt Jr. to third.0–2
- 2Massey singled to right, Caglianone scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 53%
- ML HOU +104 / KC -125
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- KC: Elo 51.3%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -113
- HOU +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.6 – 4.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −6 | HOU: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +9 Elo | KC 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 17th of 3016–20 | Road vs home | 16–2025th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 30 |
| 19th of 301490 | Elo rating | 148122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–38 | 36–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–17 | 11–19 |
| Underdog | 25–21 | 25–15 |
| Overs–unders | 38–29–4 | 31–37–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 9–11 KC in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 20.