Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Meyers popped out to second, Altuve scored.5–4
- 9Walker singled to center, Peña scored.4–4
- 7Neto homered to left center (395 feet).3–4
- 6Smith doubled to left, Matthews scored.3–3
- 6Wade Jr. doubled to right, Paredes scored.2–3
- 3Walker doubled to left, Alvarez scored.1–3
- 2O'Hoppe doubled to left, Mancini scored and Madrigal scored.0–3
- 2Mancini singled to left, Adell scored, Madrigal to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 54%
- ML HOU -131 / LAA +108
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 54.4%, market 54.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -118
- LAA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.9 – 4.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +3 | HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +31 Elo | HOU 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 54.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.828th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 18th of 3014–18 | Road vs home | 13–1826th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15066th of 30 |
| 17th of 301492 | Elo rating | 144929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–36 | 30–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–15 | 4–13 |
| Underdog | 23–21 | 26–23 |
| Overs–unders | 36–27–4 | 33–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 28–15 LAA in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 43.