Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-2
- Kai-Wei TengPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Walbert UrenaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Guzman grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Adell scored, Peraza out at second.1–10
- 8Meckler scored on error, Peraza safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Paredes, Adell safe at third on error.1–9
- 8Mancini hit sacrifice fly to center, Trout scored, Adell to second, Meckler to third.1–8
- 7Matthews singled to right, Price scored, Paredes to third.1–7
- 2Peraza grounded out to shortstop, Adell scored, Schanuel to second.0–7
- 2Adell doubled to left, Meckler scored and Trout scored.0–6
- 2Meckler doubled to left, Rivero scored and Neto scored, Trout to third.0–4
- 1Peraza grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Meckler scored, Schanuel out at second, Adell to third.0–2
- 1Schanuel hit by pitch, Neto scored, Adell to second, Meckler to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 53%
- ML HOU -126 / LAA +104
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 52.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -114
- LAA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.4 – 4.1 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +10 | HOU: Kai-Wei Teng: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Walbert Urena: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +17 Elo | HOU 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.828th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 15th of 3015–18 | Road vs home | 13–1926th of 30 |
| 21st of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15076th of 30 |
| 18th of 301493 | Elo rating | 144829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–37 | 31–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–16 | 4–13 |
| Underdog | 23–21 | 27–23 |
| Overs–unders | 36–28–4 | 33–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 29–15 LAA in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 44.