Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting3-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Steven OkertPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Mason BlackPitching2.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Matthews homered to left (433 feet).10–8
- 8Witt Jr. reached on infield single to shortstop, Massey scored, Jensen to second, Collins to third.9–8
- 8Jensen walked, Perez scored, Collins to second, Massey to third.9–7
- 8Massey singled to left, Garcia scored, Perez to second.9–6
- 1Misner singled to center, Perez scored and Massey scored.9–5
- 1Massey doubled to right, Garcia scored, Perez to third.9–3
- 1Garcia grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Witt Jr. scored, Pasquantino out at second.9–2
- 1Pasquantino singled to center, Jensen scored, Witt Jr. to third.9–1
- 1Alvarez homered to center (419 feet), Trammell scored, Vázquez scored and Peña scored.9–0
- 1Smith scored on a passed ball by Perez, Vázquez to second on passed ball by Perez, Trammell to third on passed ball by Perez.5–0
- 1Smith scored on a passed ball by Perez, Vázquez to second on passed ball by Perez, Trammell to third on passed ball by Perez.5–0
- 1Trammell singled to center, Loperfido scored, Smith to third.4–0
- 1Walker homered to left (370 feet).3–0
- 1Alvarez homered to left (368 feet), Peña scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 51%
- ML HOU -105 / KC -115
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- KC: Elo 52.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.7 – 4.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +8 | HOU: Tatsuya Imai: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · KC: Luinder Avila: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +16 Elo | KC 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 18th of 3015–20 | Road vs home | 16–1923rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 21st of 301488 | Elo rating | 148322nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–38 | 36–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–17 | 11–18 |
| Underdog | 24–21 | 25–15 |
| Overs–unders | 37–29–4 | 30–37–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 8–11 KC in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 19.