Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Cam SmithBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Siri singled to left, Madrigal scored, Walton to third.2–3
- 8Smith homered to center (408 feet).2–2
- 6Whitcomb homered to left center (408 feet).1–2
- 5O'Hoppe homered to left center (423 feet).0–2
- 1Trout homered to center (404 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 54%
- ML HOU +108 / LAA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- LAA: Elo 47.4%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- LAA -118
- HOU +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 4.7 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +3 | HOU: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +18 Elo | HOU 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 17th of 3015–19 | Road vs home | 14–1925th of 30 |
| 21st of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15066th of 30 |
| 18th of 301489 | Elo rating | 145129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–38 | 32–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–17 | 4–13 |
| Underdog | 23–21 | 28–23 |
| Overs–unders | 37–28–4 | 34–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 29–16 LAA in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 45.