Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting1-4
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Stephen KolekPitching7.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 3Garcia doubled to left, Caglianone scored and Jensen scored.0–4
- 3Caglianone singled to right, Collins scored, Jensen to second.0–2
- 1Garcia singled to left, Witt Jr. scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 52%
- ML HOU -102 / KC -119
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- KC: Elo 51.5%, market 51.8%
- Fair odds
- KC -108
- HOU +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.2 – 4.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +12 | HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Stephen Kolek: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +11 Elo | KC 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 16th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 16–2126th of 30 |
| 25th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 17th of 301491 | Elo rating | 148023rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–38 | 36–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–17 | 11–20 |
| Underdog | 26–21 | 25–15 |
| Overs–unders | 39–29–4 | 32–37–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 10–11 KC in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 21.