Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Rhys HoskinsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Tatsuya ImaiPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 8Peña singled to right, Meyers scored.3–9
- 8Meyers hit a ground rule double, Smith scored.3–8
- 7Altuve doubled to left, Alvarez scored.3–7
- 7Peña homered to left (347 feet).3–6
- 6Altuve homered to left (349 feet), Alvarez scored and Paredes scored.3–5
- 3Peña homered to left (351 feet). challenged call on the field was upheld3–2
- 3Hoskins homered to left (376 feet), Rocchio scored.3–1
- 3Rocchio doubled to right, Bazzana scored.1–1
- 1Paredes singled to right, Walker scored on throwing error by right fielder Watson, Paredes to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 53%
- ML CLE +104 / HOU -125
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 49.4%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -113
- CLE +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.1 – 4.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −3 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Tatsuya Imai: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +4 Elo | CLE 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 13th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–58th of 30 |
| 9th of 3021–18 | Road vs home | 18–2023rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149425th of 30 |
| 9th of 301512 | Elo rating | 148819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–37 | 36–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 10–18 |
| Underdog | 25–13 | 26–22 |
| Overs–unders | 36–39 | 40–32–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 8–12 HOU in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.