Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Hao-Yu LeeBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Astros- Raynel DelgadoBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Peña grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Loperfido scored, Delgado out at second. Houston Astros challenged call on the field was overturned2–4
- 8Delgado singled to center, Diaz scored and Smith scored, Loperfido to third.2–3
- 8Dingler hit sacrifice fly to center, Lee scored.2–1
- 5Delgado scored on a passed ball by Dingler, Walker to second on passed ball by Dingler.1–1
- 5Delgado scored on a passed ball by Dingler, Walker to second on passed ball by Dingler.1–1
- 2Lee singled to left, Torkelson scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 61%
- ML DET +148 / HOU -180
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 56.0%, market 61.5%
- Fair odds
- HOU -159
- DET +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.7 – 4.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +20 | DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 1.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +42 Elo | HOU 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 61.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 30th of 3012–26 | Road vs home | 16–2026th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149525th of 30 |
| 17th of 301490 | Elo rating | 148521st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–38 | 34–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–25 | 8–18 |
| Underdog | 20–13 | 26–22 |
| Overs–unders | 33–35–4 | 40–30–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 12–9 HOU in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 21.