Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9McGonigle homered to left (340 feet).2–4
- 7Carpenter homered to left (337 feet).1–4
- 6Peña singled to right, Loperfido scored, Vázquez to third, Meyers thrown out at home. Houston Astros challenged call on the field was upheld0–4
- 5Paredes doubled to left, Alvarez scored.0–3
- 5Alvarez doubled to center, Vázquez scored.0–2
- 3Peña homered to left (360 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 50%
- ML DET -110 / HOU -110
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 51.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -100
- DET -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 4.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +1 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +7 Elo | HOU 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 30th of 3012–27 | Road vs home | 17–2023rd of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149524th of 30 |
| 18th of 301489 | Elo rating | 148720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–39 | 35–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–25 | 9–18 |
| Underdog | 20–14 | 26–22 |
| Overs–unders | 33–36–4 | 40–31–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 12–10 HOU in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.