Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Travis BazzanaBatting4-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting2-4
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Manzardo singled to right, Halpin scored, Bazzana to second.8–1
- 7Bazzana singled to right, Bailey scored, Halpin to second.7–1
- 5Bazzana homered to right center (406 feet), Kwan scored and Bailey scored.6–1
- 3Manzardo homered to (388 feet), Bazzana scored.3–1
- 2Diaz singled to right, Paredes scored, Altuve to third.1–1
- 1Bazzana homered to right center (382 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 58%
- ML CLE +130 / HOU -157
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 50.7%, market 58.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -141
- CLE +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.9 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +7 | CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +5 Elo | HOU 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 29th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 10th of 3021–19 | Road vs home | 19–2023rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 30 |
| 10th of 301509 | Elo rating | 149118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–38 | 37–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 11–18 |
| Underdog | 25–14 | 26–22 |
| Overs–unders | 37–39 | 41–32–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 8–13 HOU in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.