Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Randal GrichukBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Carpenter doubled to left, Greene scored and Dingler scored.3–4
- 6Perez homered to left center (375 feet).3–2
- 5Peters grounded into fielder's choice to second, Antonacci scored, Acuña out at second. Chicago White Sox challenged call on the field was overturned2–2
- 1Vierling homered to center (408 feet), Dingler scored.1–2
- 1Grichuk homered to left (420 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 65%
- ML CHW +171 / DET -209
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- DET: Elo 56.1%, market 64.7%
- Fair odds
- DET -183
- CHW +183 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.3 – 4.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +16 | CHW: Brandon Eisert: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +43 Elo | DET 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 62.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 64.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 11th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 24th of 3015–22 | Road vs home | 18–1614th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 25th of 301478 | Elo rating | 148720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–35 | 34–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 14–25 |
| Underdog | 33–24 | 20–15 |
| Overs–unders | 43–28–2 | 33–37–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 16–26 DET in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 42.